Over a series of 3 articles I will be looking at the generic idea of soccer in St. Louis, and Collinsville specifically, from both logical and emotional perspectives, but first I thought it would probably be a good idea to try and examine some of the numbers and assumptions from the pre-annexation agreement that Jeff Cooper and St. Louis Soccer United have presented to the Collinsville City Council for approval on Sept. 10 to give us a baseline to measure those arguments against.

What I'm going to attempt to do is start from the annual stadium generated revenue projections and see how we can back into the numbers behind them, and then look at how realistic those assumptions are. The other two types of revenue projected, the Annual Sales Tax and General Revenues, can not be looked at quite as cleanly because though the stadium is either finished and working completely or not, the others relate to what the complex is going to be like at full build-out, which is projected to take approximately 10 years.

Merchandise sales: $1,040,000

It would take roughly 13,000 authentic replica jersey sales at $80 a pop to equal this number. Assuming good promotion, a high-profile signing or three for the start-up team, and an attractive design, that's a pretty easy number to imagine. Of course that only counts merchandise sold at the stadiums versus that sold online on the MLS online shopping site or other outlets, but as a former season ticket holder for my adopted hometown team, DC United (it's amazing how the arrival of a baby will limit your game attendance), I can attest that so long as the excitement in the team is high, due to on-field success or some event like the signing of a local prodigy like Freddy Adu, the stadium paraphernalia sales could indeed be that brisk.

Concessions/Catering: $2,840,000

This is assuming an additional average $7 per attendee in soda/beer/nachos, etc. Again, completely reasonable, especially when you can drink beer into the 70th minute of a game. I know not everybody's going to be drinking $4 beers, but plenty will, and most will have more than 1, and could easily get in 3 over the 2 hours of a game without having to guzzle.

Ticket Parking License: $2,035,000 = 407,000 attendees with $5 per ticket.

This is the crux of these numbers, for if the attendance goes south, then all other assumptions have to be adjusted. Generously assuming sell outs for roughly 19 regular season games equals 351,500 tickets (see (Handicapping the Major League Soccer Race to 16 Teams) for my rationale behind a theoretical 38 game schedule once MLS gets to 16 teams). That leaves 55,500 extra tickets for other events throughout the course of the year. If you go the "assume sell-outs" route, you would only need 3 additional events, which is certainly possible for high-profile international games or professional friendlies, and Mr. Cooper's dreams of a resurrected Bronze Boot game between Saint Louis University and Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, but unlikely if we're talking about high school and other college games.

Sound realistic? According to Chicago-based soccer blogger/sportscaster/all-around afficionado Kenn Tomasch who keeps track of these things is the all-time average MLS attendance spanning almost 2,000 games as of early in the 2007 season is a whisker over 15,000, and that's prior to as single home game for the 2007 expansion addition of Toronto FC's all sell-outs all-the-time schedule (see Kenn's MLS Attendance Analysis Page). If we dip the assumption for the 19 regular season games from sell-outs to the 15K number, we have another 66,500 butts in seats to make up for, but you can just look at Toronto FC's debut this year to see how a properly executed launch in a soccer-mad area can give a season of sell-outs, even without a David Beckham in sight, and while losing far more games than anybody would like.

Without a national team game or other high-profile friendly, let's still give sellouts for just the one other game and the Bronze Boot, then you are left with another 18,500 plus the 66,500 from a lowered 15k game average to total an additional 85,000 tickets to be spread out over any other events for the course of the season.

Mr. Cooper is on record as planning to hold concerts, festivals, other college games and youth tournaments in the proposed stadium, which really wouldn't require too many to hit the target number.

The remaining three numbers, the Amusement Tax, Business District Tax, and Hotel/Motel Tax, are considerably more opaque from my couch 800 or so odd miles away. The Hotel/Motel Tax will obviously be dependent on the number of hotel nights booked per year, so a good starting place would be to know the general occupancy/vacancy rates currently in the nearby area to see how much additional capacity there is to absorb the additional out-of-town visitors for events.

Since this is all under "Stadium Generated Revenues" I'm assuming the Amusement Tax would be applied just to events at the stadium. If that's the case you can use the above assumed attendance figures of 407,000 attendees annually to back into an assumed average ticket price across all events. That would be roughly $26.50, which if you look at the ticket prices for recent expansion team, Real Salt Lake, isn't that out of whack at all (go here and click on the yellow "T" icon to see the prices for an upcoming game, which generally seem to range between $17/$19 for the cheap seats on the ends to $28/$40 along the sidelines). If it's something different, obviously the equation changes, but not being a tax expert this is the best assumption I can make on what an Amusement Tax would cover.

The Business District Tax revenue of $147,000 backs into 1% of an assumed $14,700,000 in total sales, which roughly equates to the $1,040,000 in merchandise sales plus $2,840,000 in concessions, plus $10,785,000 in ticket sales. My calculator says those numbers total $14,665,000, which is within shouting distance, but I don't know what else we're supposed to assume that $14.7 million is to encompass based on the pre-annexation proposal (City Of Collinsville Annexation Agreement Proposal) . If I add in 1% of the projected $7.8 million in Hotel/Motel revenues, we add in $78,000 which puts us over the target, so I'm not sure quite how you make up the difference, but at least we're still in the range.

So the bottom line at least for the stadium revenue appears to be pretty darn realistic, if even a bit conservative, especially in that it doesn't include any revenues from a sought-after Big Box retailer for the project, which is a good thing for a municipality to see when presented with an outstretched hand asking for help like this. The fact that the help comes by way of guarantees on bonds as opposed to outright cash from city coffers should further help the fiscally conservative see this development as a net positive for the city.

I would hasten to add that this development is a far more realistic way to create a true destination spot on the East side of the St. Louis Metro area than the cluster of un-coordinated buildings operating along the grandiosely named Eastport Plaza Drive, almost routinely changing owners and names every couple of years at best. In the 20 years since I moved away from the area I can't count how many different restaurants have come with much fanfare and subsequently gone with little mourning or notice.

Go to Part 2: (Handicapping the Major League Soccer Race to 16 Teams)
Go to Part 3: (A Former Kahok Votes For Collinsville and St. Louis Soccer)

Think I've got it all wrong or just have a comment? Let me know here and I'll make any modifications/corrections necessary, giving credit where requested.

All Articles Indexed for the Updated Topic: Toronto FC Debut
Hogtown's Soccer Renaissance | Edmonton Sun Jun 17, 07 | go to article