Major League Soccer tries to deny accusations that it is a combination developmental league/retirement home for aging veterans without viable options elsewhere, but the recent kerfuffle over the Collective Bargaining Agreement with the MLS Players’ Union as well as US Men’s National Team Coach Bob Bradley’s likely roster choices for tickets to South Africa this summer tell a different story.

Let’s start at the end with Coach Bradley’s 23-man World Cup roster selections (US World Cup 2010 Roster Speculation
(last updated June 2)). The most optimistic of predictions would have 5 of those final 23 slots be taken by MLS players, by far the fewest since first division professional soccer returned to the United States and what could be a clear indication of MLS’s slide into irrelevance with regards to the senior national team:

Unfortunately tonight’s friendly vs. El Salvador is little more than a final chance for only a small handful of players, mostly strikers, to make an argument that their progression over the first couple of months of the MLS season needs to be followed closely. But for all of the rest of the 20 players on the game-day roster, it’s simply a trial by fire to see who might be getting calls for the next cup qualifying cycle to face El Salvador with something more meaningful as opposed to theoretical on the line (US MNT vs. El Salvador (Feb. 24, 2010 Friendly)
(last updated March 3)).

Let’s face it, what could the Houston Dynamo’s Geoff Cameron or DC United’s Chris Pontius possibly do that would move them far enough up the depth charts to seriously contend for South Africa?

With that reality, clearly Coach Bradley is not exactly impressed by the options for American players that MLS is offering up. Is it hardly surprising if the part of the American soccer audience that has actually attended MLS games is stagnating and actually falling as well?

In the well-established markets of Los Angeles, 2009 attendance was down for the Galaxy 21.5% from 2008 (still 5,000 greater than Chivas USA’s average numbers for the same stadium, which was still a decline of 0.1%); Washington DC down 18.9%; Chicago, even with a shiny new stadium, down 13.8%; New England down 21.9%; and New York, always one of the worst performers attendance-wise, down another 21.6%; yet sadly enough still better than Dallas, Colorado and Kansas City*.

Of course the poor state of the economy has to take some portion of the blame, but how much of it given the extremely affordable prices of tickets in MLS compared to other sports alternatives?

Again, these numbers represent people who are already familiar with the game and MLS, yet chose to not return. They do not count potential new converts and fans of other leagues or sports who continue to choose to stay away.

I think a far better argument would be made that even with a cheap ticket in years where going to any alternative is going to put a dent in the wallet, sitting on the couch and watching the EPL or La Liga or Mexico’s Primera on an HD TV is preferable to watching what passes for soccer much of the time in MLS unfortunately. I say this as a former DC United season ticket holder who only stopped going to live games due to the arrival of our two sons. Even I can’t find reason much of the time to watch MLS games in a non-Cup qualifying year given the alternatives available.

Now what does this have to do with the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations (MLS Collective Bargaining Agreement
(last updated May 13))?

When the one “non-negotiable” item for the league negotiators is anything that would allow long-time MLS stalwarts like Kevin Hartman and Steve Ralston to find another team in the league to pay them without having to pay respectively Kansas City and New England first, even though neither of the teams even want the players’ services, I think you can see where anybody with any choice on what to do with their career is going to decide: call Richard Motzkin or whomever is their agent up and thell them to “Get me the the Hell out of MLS/Dodge as soon as freaking possible!”

Why would a player with other options stick it out in a league like MLS after seeing the way the league high-handedly deals with players like Hartman and Ralston? I can’t think of any other sport or business where the owners can literally own even the potential to pay a player when they choose themselves not to exercise that right themselves.

Say what you want about some of the other points the players are trying to make with the owners, but this one shining example both illustrates why the players may be willing to go to the wall and strike rather than continue, and why doing so appears to be in the best interests of long-suffering MLS fans (and the few owners willing to actually PAY for talent) (Little Player Power In Major League Soccer) .

MLS President Mark Abbott’s contention that doing so will create a bidding war among the owners is transparently false, as has been noted by more than a few commentators given MLS’s salary cap. The league’s position appears rather to be more about protecting poorly run franchises from having to get their acts together lest they be publicly caught out as the amateurs some of them clearly are as the public sees the better players with a choice decide it makes more sense for them to spend their last couple of years in Seattle in front of a fervent and knowledgeable fan-base, than continue to play in front of nobody in Colorado, Dallas, New England, New York or Kansas City.

Paul James of the Toronto Globe and Mail very eloquently noted that while the league points to the challenges of running teams profitably in the smaller markets like Columbus or Kansas City, why should that be a problem for the players to deal with (MLS Needs To Raise Salary Cap) ? I mean, in a single entity league, isn’t it the league’s decision as to whether or not a team is viable? It certainly is when considering expansion candidates, so does that right then simply go away?

Why should the players pay the penalty for the league simply allowing franchises to wither on the vine rather than figure out once and for all how to sustain themselves where they are, or if that’s not possible (and eventually it should become obvious whether it is or not), find more fertile ground elsewhere?

If Major League Soccer’s market and ownership group selections make it such that its financial health can’t retain our own national team players, while only making it attractive for players to play here who are either too young to have any other options, or old enough and still talented enough to be given enough leverage to negotiate relatively competitive contracts in the international marketplace, yet not quite good enough to be paid a decent amount in England, Spain, Italy, Germany, Holland, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, etc., then I’m not sure how that spells anything other than a developmental league/retirement home.

After hearing only from league office honchos like Commissioner Don Garber and President Abbott so far on this, I’d be really curious to know what new owners like those in Seattle, Vancouver, Portland think about this. How long do they plan to support the dead-wood teams in the league who dream of breaking 15,000 in average attendance while they are drawing sell-out crowds? If they’re doing all of the heavy lifting of building stadia, office organizations, teams and fan support, why should they allow free–loaders to collectively drag the MLS name through the mud?

Nobody wins if the players strike, least of all the fans, but at least the players might eventually find a foreign field more accommodating to play on if the US national team continues to find international success, and we’ll still be able to watch them on TV, since too few of us as it is are heading to the stadiums anyway (especially if the Scandinavian leagues get TV deals!).

The fact that the league looks like a bunch heartless Grapefruit League baseball teams inviting the fans to “Come out and see the stars of tomorrow!” (and yesterday) through their steadfast “Nothing Even Approaching Free Agency” position just makes it that much more obvious who loses the most here, despite the contentions of Goal.com’s Andrea Canales (The Real Losers Of Major League Soccer's Labor Dispute) .

Now back to tonight’s game in Tampa. The story line that seems to be catching the most buzz with the media is whether or not Jeff Cunningham will be able to take advantage of what is widely perceived to be his last chance on the international stage (Chance At World Cup Beckons For Ex-USF Star Jeff Cunningham) , (Cunningham At Last Chance Saloon) , and (Cunningham Shooting For One Last Chance At World Cup) .

I agree, as if he can’t score against El Salvador in a home friendly, after almost a dozen chances with the full national team, I can’t imagine how many goals he would have to score in FC Dallas’s first month and a half of play to win back a spot on 23-man roster.

Conor Casey still has a shot at becoming Brian Ching’s heir-apparent on the 2014 roster, and Robbie Findley has even more years in front of him, but Cunningham is really the only one who has a legitimate all-or-nothing shot on his shoulders tonight. One caveat to that is that if interviews are to be believed, Bradley won’t just be looking at the scoreline, but at the kind of work Cunningham does both holding the ball and positionally to help defend and put other people in good spots, none of which necessarily show up on the score sheet.

As to the rest of the lineup, the only chance I see anybody other than Jonathan Bornstein, Brian Ching, Clarence Goodson and maybe Robbie Rogers or Heath Pearce breaking into the 23 is with injuries, which everybody knows will occur, but I shudder at the thought of how deep on the depth charts we’d have to go to get Marvell Wynne, Brad Evans or Eddie Gaven on Bradley’s final list this coming May. Nothing against any of these players to be sure, they’re all fine players, just not up to snuff at the international level yet, and I suspect some of them will never get there.

Think I've got it all wrong or just have a comment or suggestion? Let me know here and I'll make any modifications/corrections necessary, giving credit where requested.

*: Credit for the MLS attendance numbers goes to Kenn Tomasch’s indispensable kenn.com blog-Final MLS Attendance Numbers 2009.